หล กส ตร ร ฐว สาหก จก บความสามารถในการแข งข นของประเทศ

หล กส ตร ร ฐว สาหก จก บความสามารถในการแข งข นของประเทศ โดย ค ณธ รน นท ศร หงส รองกรรมการผ จ ดการอาวโส รองกรรมการผ จดการอาว โส ธนาคารกส กรไทย จ าก ด (มหาชน) กรรมการอ านวยการ TMA

Agenda Why does competitiveness matter? How competitiveness is evaluated? Where is Thailand in the World Competitiveness rankings? Thailand in the World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011 2

Why does Competitiveness Matter? 3

Competitiveness matters because Competitiveness is not everything that matters, but without competitiveness everything that matters is much harder to achieve. Source: Dr. Christian M. Ketels, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School 4

Competitiveness Does Matter Quality of Life (Prosperity) Economic Outcomes (Productivity) Competitiveness Source: Dr. Christian M. Ketels, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School 5

Japan s New Growth Strategy 2010 2020 Green Innovation Life Innovation Financial Sector Employment & Human Resources Strategic Areas Science and Technology IT Oriented Nation Asia TourismTourismOriented Nation & Local Revitalization

Korea Model We ealth of the Natio on Korea 1.0 Heavy Industry Ship Building Steel Chemical Korea 3.0 Green Technologies Korea 2.0 High Tech Convergence Value Added Entertainment Service Software Telecommunications Equipment Time

Transforming towards a Low Carbon Society Government Business Citizens Green Growth as a new economic growth engine Stricter rules on less green imports & provision of adaptation support to maintain competitive edge of domestic industries. Improvement of energy efficiency to reduce costs Voluntary emission reduction for green image Low Carbon, Technologydriven Environmentally Awareness / Go Green Health Concern Carbon Leakage/Off-shoring to Developing Countries?? Manufacturing Services Change in Consumers Preferences Eco buying Examples Korea To become the World 7th Green Power by 2010 and 5th by 2050 Japan Carbon minimization in all sectors Toward a simpler life style that realizes richer quality of life Coexistence i t with nature The US, the UK, China, India etc.

Offshore Farming The 1 st The 2 nd The 3 rd Wave Wave Wave Manufacturing Services Food & Agriculture Resource wars the world will demand 70 percent more food by 2050, outstripping population growth Cash rich Arab and Asian governments are buying up arable farmland all over developing world Chinese businesses are investing in South America and Africa, not only to gain access to commodities, but to get in position to profit from sales to the emerging middle class China is also buying up large tracks of land throughout Africa to produce biofuels and to produce food India's companies have formed a consortium to invest in corporate farming of oilseeds in Latin America, most notably Uruguay and Paraguay

Managing Risk in the Extreme Environments Path of social welfare with/without a disaster event Risk Assessment Mapping Agg gregate Socia al Welfare Social lwlf Welfare (No Disaster Event) Loss Social Welfare (With Disaster Event) Likelihoo d of Occur rrence Medium High Low Seven Successive days warmer than 30 c in Geneva One in twenty year flood in the Rhine River Land falling hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico Disaster Event Source: Learning from Catastrophes Time Low Medium High Impact

Regional Integration ASEAN + 6 3,284 mil (50% World Population) 12,250 bil US$ (22% World GDP) ASEAN + 3 2,068 Mil 9,901901 bil US$ (31% World Population) (18 % World GDP) ASEAN 585 Mil 1,275 bil US$ (9% World ldpopulation) (2 % World ldgdp)

The Rise of Asian Middle Class In 2000, middle class from East Asia and Pacific are estimated to be around one sixth of total global goba middle cass(app class (approx 72 million people) e) or around 1.4% of global population In 2030, World Bank projects that proportion of middle class from East Asia and Pacific will rise to nearly half of total global middle class (600 million) or 8.9% in 2030 accounting for 7.7% of global income World Bank, Australian Government Source: Bussolo, Maurizio (2007).

The Rise of the Rest

The New USA Source: ADB (2011)

ASEAN Economic Community Singapore gp Thailand/ Malaysia/ aaysa/ Indonesia/ Philippines/ Vietnam Brunei Cambodia Laos Myanmar Service Production Resource Rubber Automotives Tourism and Aviation Fashion Food Education Logistics/Transportation Agriculture and Fisheries Wood ICT and Healthcare Electronics Financial Services Energy Construction

AEC as a Strategic Base Rubber Automotives Tourism and Aviation Fashion Food Education Logistics/Transportation Agriculture and Fisheries Wood ICT and Healthcare Electronics Financial Services Energy Construction Investment Market Resource

Competitiveness Rankings National Competitiveness World Competitiveness Yearbook by IMD Global Competitiveness Report by WEF Ease of Doing Business Index by World Bank Index of Economic Freedom by The Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal Enterprise Competitiveness - Dow Jones Sustainability Index - Fortune s 500 - Forbes Global 2000, etc. 6

No One Can Manage Something They Can t Measure!! ASSETS CAPITALIZING ON STRENGTHS! LIABILITIES IMPROVING WEAKNESSES! Source : IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland 7

Why are the Rankings Useful? Benchmark globally Highlight competitive strengths and target weaknesses Set goals and targets t Promote the country / public relations - attract investment - attract skills and talents - raise awareness and visibility Learn from the others.. Source : IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland 8

Who use Competitiveness Rankings? The Private Sector To assess national environments in determining investment plans and location assessments The Public Sector To benchmark its policy success and to see how other nations perform 9

How Competitiveness is Evaluated? 10

Definitions IMD - Institute for Management Development - How nations and enterprises manage the totality of their competencies to achieve long-term prosperity WEF - World Economic Forum - The set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country which, in turn, sets the sustainable level of prosperity p that can be earned by an economy 11

Competitiveness Framework Competitiveness 12 NATURAL ENDOWMENTS & GEOGRAPHY DRIVERS OF GROWTH SKILLS & TALENTS INFRASTRUCTURE PRODUCTIVITY INNOVATION, ETC. Source : IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland ATTITUDES & VALUES GOVERNMENTS BUSINESSES PEOPLE

Competitiveness Framework Microeconomic Competitiveness Sophistication of Company Operations and Strategy State of Cluster Development Quality of the National Business Environmental Macroeconomic Competitiveness Social Infrastructure and Political Institutions Macroeconomic Policy Endowments Natural Resources Geographic Location Size Source: Dr. Christian H. M. Keteis, Professor Michael E. Porter 13

Creating a Pro Competitive Platform Nation s Competitiveness Industry Collaborative Network Corporate Competency Individual Industry National Enterprise Cluster Ecosystem

Enabling Environment Cluster A Cluster C Cluster B Cluster D Enabling Infrastructure Institutional Framework Business Practices Logistics Financial IT Competition Policy Appropriate IP Protection Law & Regulation One Stop Service Transparency Streamline Process Predictable Environment

Enabling Environment for Building an Entrepreneurial Society Early Stage/ Growing Well established Start Up Venture Firms Increase Business Opportunities Increasing Market Access Increasing Credit Access Increasing Technology Access Increasing Labor Market Access Enhance Operational Capability Enhancing Innovation Improving Productivity it Enhancing Collaborative Network Decrease Transaction Costs Creating a Predictable Environment Relaxing Business Constraints Minimizing Business Risks

Smart Collaborative at Network Development e e Value Created Lift off Extending Emerging National Ecosystem Time

Dynamics of Clustering and Industry Transformation Food Agriculture Pharmaceuticals Food Medical Services Pharmaceuticals Medical Equipment Food d Chemicals Health Services Biomedical Textiles Apparel Chemicals Textiles Chemicals Plastics High Fashion Apparel Metals Basic Metals Textiles Chemicals Plastic High Fashion Apparel Apparel Advanced Materials Basic Metals Electrical Machinery Industrial Machinery Metal Metal Products Trade, Wholesale Distribution Banking Consumer Electronics Financial Services Communications Equipment Bicycles y Information Services Business Services Industrial Machinery Printing Industrial Machinery Transportation Equipment Computers Information Services Financial i l Services Business Services Consumer Electronics Communications Equipment Advanced Manufacturing Advanced Information System Printing

Where is Thailand in the World Competiveness Rankings? 14

IMD:THE WORLD COMPETITIVENESS SCOREBOARD 2011 Total 59 Economies Published: May 2011 15

IMD : The World Competitiveness Scoreboard 2010-11 Rank Top10 BRIC ASEAN 1 10 20 30 40 50 59 16 Y 2010 2 3 1 6 4 8 7 15 5 16 18 31 38 51 10 26 35 39 Y 2011 1 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 19 32 44 49 16 27 37 41 Diff 1 2-2 2-1 2-7 -4 6-1 -1-6 2-6 -1-2 -2 Total 59 Economies Published : May 2011

0 10 20 30 40 50 The Evaluation : Overall Ranking 2001 2011 USA Singapore Hong Kong Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 4 32 32 2 2 1 4 3 3 32 32 1 3 6 8 10 10 13 16 16 19 18 21 22 24 23 26 26 25 28 28 27 26 26 27 29 31 34 33 35 37 39 40 41 40 40 39 43 42 41 43 42 46 45 47 49 49 50 52 51 54 60 17 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

WEF: The Global Competitiveness Index 2010-2011 2011 Top 20 and selected economies 18 Total: 139 economies Published: September 2010

Thailand in the World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011 23

Asian Countries Ranking 2011 Hong Kong (1) Singapore gp (2)) 100.000 98.557 Taiwan (3) Malaysia (4) China (5) 92.001 84.120 81.100 Korea (6) Japan (7) Thailand (8) 78.499 75.214 74.886 India (9) Indonesia (10) Philippines i (11) 70.649 64.610 56.500500 0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 24 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

ASEAN Overall & Factor Benchmarking 2011 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines Overall 3 16 27 37 41 Economic Performance Government Efficiency Business Efficiency 5 7 10 32 29 2 17 23 25 37 2 14 19 33 31 Infrastructure 10 27 47 55 57 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland 25

ASEAN Countries Improvements Overall Singapore Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 2 3 1 3 26 10 10 16 20 19 18 23 27 26 26 27 30 33 35 37 40 40 39 41 43 42 45 50 51 54 60 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

ASEAN Countries Improvements Economic Performance Singapore Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia 0 10 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4 3 65 5 8 89 8 7 10 12 12 15 14 30 27 34 29 32 40 50 60 45 55 42 52 41 51 27 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

ASEAN Countries Improvements Government Efficiency Singapore Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 1 1 2 2 9 17 17 19 19 18 21 22 23 23 25 27 33 31 38 37 41 42 47 46 28 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

ASEAN Countries Improvements Business Efficiency Singapore Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4 2 4 1 2 4 15 14 13 14 34 39 45 44 25 25 20 19 31 32 32 34 31 33 38 29 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

ASEAN Countries Improvements Infrastructure Singapore Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia 0 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3 3 8 11 10 20 30 26 25 26 25 27 40 50 60 39 48 48 51 54 53 42 46 47 56 55 56 55 55 57 30 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2010-11 19 Source: World Economic Forum

Thailand and Vietnam in WEF GCR Innovation 6 Institutions Infrastructure Business sophistication 4 2 Macroeconomic environment Market size 0 Health and primary education Technological readiness Higher education and training Financial market development Labor market efficiency Goods market efficiency Thailand Vietnam 31 Source: World Economic Forum

Evolution of Factor Rankings : Thailand Competitiveness Factor 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Economic Performance 15 12 14 6 10 Government Efficiency 27 22 17 18 23 Business Efficiency 34 25 25 20 19 Infrastructure 48 39 42 46 47 33 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

Economic Performance Thailand Competitiveness Landscape Criteria International Investment 34 Ranking 27 6 3 Domestic Economy International Trade Employment 23 23 11 Prices Public Finance Government Efficiency Instructional Framework Business Legislation 39 35 7 Fiscal Policy Societal Framework 47 Productivity & Efficiency 33 Business Performance 19 16 16 24 2 Labor Market Finance Management Practices Attitudes and Values Basic Infrastructure t Technical Infrastructure 52 Infrastructure Scientific Infrastructure 40 34 Health and Environment 54 Education 51 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

Thailand s Weaknesses GDP per capita Risk of political instability, business cost of terrorism Business start-up days Productivity Medical assistance Broadband internet subscription, Internet bandwidth speed Communication technology Human Development index Secondary school enrollment and pupil-teacher ratio Total health expenditure Total expenditure on R&D IT skills 22

Key Attractiveness Indicators : Thailand % 18 Five least favorable factors of the economy 17.6 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 10.8 10.8 12.2 12.2 0 Effective legal environment Lackof corruption High educational Strong level R&D network Low regulatory burden 36 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

Thailand Strengths Labor force and employment Real GDP growth, inflation, foreign currency reserve Effective personal income tax rate and consumption tax rate Investment incentives Investor protection Financial institution transparency 20

Thailand Strengths Mobile telephone costs Quality of roads/air transport infrastructure Sustainable development Customer oriented National culture Attitudes toward globalization li 21

% 80 71.6 Key Attractiveness Indicators : Thailand Top 5 Key attractiveness factors of the economy 70 59.5 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 47.3 45.9 43.2 Dynamismof the economy Low operating costs Skilled workforce Productivityof of workforce Reliable infrastructure 35 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

Criteria related to State Enterprises Key attractiveness indicators identified by top 10 most competitive economies Reliable infrastructure Policy stability & predictability Dynamism of the economy Lack of corruption High educational level Skilled workforce Effective legal environment 41

Key Attractiveness Indicators: Singapore Top 5 key attractiveness factors of the economy % 80 72.2 70 64.6 61.8 60 52.8 50 40 30 20 10 0 45.1 45.1 Policy stability & predictability Reliable infrastructure Effective legal environment Lack of corruption Competitive tax Dynamism regime of the economy 37 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

Key Attractiveness Indicators: Singapore % Five least favorable factors of the economy 16 13.9 14 12.5 16.0 12 10 9.0 8 6.3 6 4 2 0 Low operating Strong costs R & D network Low regulatory burden Competent manager Access to financing i 38 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

% 70 61.5 Key Attractiveness Indicators: Malaysia Top 5 key attractiveness factors of the economy 60 50 40 30 20 10 53.8 52.3 47.77 46.2 0 Dynamism of the economy Rlibl Reliable infrastructure tskilled workforce Policy stability & predictability Low operating costs 39 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland

Key Attractiveness Indicators: Malaysia % 18 16 Five least favorable factors of the economy 14 12.3 15.4 13.8 16.9 12 10 8 7.7 6 4 2 0 Lack of corruption Effective legal lenvironment Low regulatory lt burden Competitive tax regime Strong R&D network 40 Source: IMD International, Lausanne, Switzerland